At long last, the Supreme Court has heard the oral arguments on the much-discussed Janus v. AFSCME case. Given the makeup of the court, most anticipate a ruling in favor of the plaintiff, Mark Janus, meaning that teachers who choose not to be union members will no longer have to pay annual fees. Because states take different approaches to teachers unions, a decision in favor of Janus will have considerable impact in some states and little to no direct effect in others.
Although the total financial impact of such a decision on teachers unions is difficult to predict, the most likely scenario is slow but steady erosion in union members, not a steep, immediate fall.
Where teachers can collectively bargain
To assess the impact of a ruling in favor of the plaintiff, it’s necessary to know where teachers are currently allowed to collectively bargain and where unions may collect agency fees. Using data from the National Council on Teacher Quality’s Teacher Contract Database, we examine which states are most likely to feel a direct and immediate impact from such a ruling.